UI Coronavirus Modeling Application Projects Future Course of COVID-19 in Iowa

University of Iowa
College of Public Health

UI Coronavirus Modeling Application Projects Future Course of COVID-19 in Iowa

A new University of Iowa website developed by public health researchers tracking the COVID-19 pandemic provides an interactive tool to model the effects various mitigation measures could have on the future course of the disease in Iowa. The website and modeling application is available at https://covid-19.public-health.uiowa.edu/.

The tool utilizes statistical modeling to predict how interventions such as social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) might influence COVID-19 in Iowa. Projections indicate that novel coronavirus infections and deaths could increase or decrease substantially in the coming months, depending on how many Iowans adopt these measures and how effective mitigation efforts are in limiting disease transmission. While the modeling tool provides estimates for the expected epidemic trend, the researchers stress that actual outcomes may vary considerably.

“The College of Public Health COVID-19 Response Team developed this tool as a free public service to state and local policymakers, business leaders, and others to assist in guiding the community response to the coronavirus pandemic,” says project leader Joseph Cavanaugh, professor and head of biostatistics in the UI College of Public Health.

The modeling application’s interactive features allow users to adjust and visualize the impact that two types of “nonpharmaceutical interventions” — social distancing and universal PPE — could have on the number of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, ventilator use, and deaths over time. Other variables include the date interventions are implemented, level of PPE effectiveness, and the percentage of Iowa’s population that adopts social distancing or PPE recommendations...

To read the full news article published on June 12, 2020, by the University of Iowa College of Public Health, please click here.